Interest rates

The inflation rate, which had been on a decline from its COVID-induced peak in mid-2022, has now reversed course, steadily increasing from 2.3% in early 2025 to its current rate of 4.2%.

FOMC rate cuts 鈥� three in 2025 鈥� that were key to dialing back mortgage rates are now frozen in place as economists keep a watchful eye on rising inflation.

On June 17, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair a unanimous decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4%, noting, 鈥淚nflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.鈥�

In anticipating the FOMC鈥檚 June decision, Jeff Taylor, a board member for the Mortgage Bankers Association and founder of Mphasis Digital Risk, told in late May that homeowners and buyers should expect mortgage rates to remain in the mid-to-upper 6% range throughout 2026, with potential for rates to move into the 7% range if the Iran conflict is protracted. 鈥淭his conflict has caused inflation, which causes investors to sell mortgage bonds, which pushes rates higher,鈥� he said.

Shandor Whitcher, an economist with Moody’s Analytics, concurred with Taylor鈥檚 outlook during an on June 17. 鈥淚n terms of treasuries, we expect the 10-year to remain elevated due to fiscal policy and the overall inflationary environment. At most, we may see modest declines of a few basis points in the 30-year fixed rate mortgages, but overall rates will remain above 6% for the foreseeable future and are more or less where they are going to be through the end of the decade.鈥�

Global economic concerns

Even as real estate professionals keep their eye on what is happening in Washington, the global economy is also an important consideration, as international conflicts have a trickle-down effect on the U.S. economy and hence the real estate market as well.

The World Economic Forum鈥檚 noted that the U.S. continues to trail global growth, with World Output reaching 3.4% in 2025, while the U.S. reported 2.1% GDP growth. The U.S. is anticipated to trail again in 2026 and 2027 at 2.3% and 2.1% respectively, with global growth projected at 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. came to similar conclusions in its , projecting modest growth of 2.1% to 2.3%, softened by higher energy prices and geopolitical developments. On the upside, steady labor markets and tech investment are expected to keep the overall economy on an even keel.

Beyond the obvious economic drivers, world economists are now focused on more concerning developments 鈥� headlined under the unexpected consequences category 鈥�  and that is the long-term effect on world food production as well as the inflationary consequences of higher food prices triggered by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

In its May 28 article, , Chief Economist Maximo Torero of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted that the blockade has severely disrupted global fertilizer supply chains just as planting seasons advance across both hemispheres.

鈥淎s farmers face urea fertilizer price increases of 20% to 60%, on top of rising fuel, transport, and irrigation costs, the greatest risk is not immediate food shortages but rather cascading shocks that reduce future food production,鈥� Torero explained. 鈥淚t begins with energy-price spikes and logistics disruptions, followed by fertilizer shortages, then lower yields, with delayed transmission effects eventually leading to higher food prices and market volatility months later.鈥�

In the World Economic Forum鈥檚 May 2026 , 94% of surveyed chief economists were anticipating higher global inflation in the coming year.

鈥淓nergy and food prices are identified as primary drivers, with supply shocks projected to have lasting effects,鈥� the WEF noted in the executive summary. 鈥淲hile 58% of respondents do not see a global recession as imminent, there are limited expectations of increased economic resilience in the short term.鈥�

Resilience and stability

On the positive side, economic activity in the U.S. continues at a solid pace, prompting the labor market to add 172,000 jobs in May 鈥� exceeding economists’ expectations.

Stability in the job market is always a good indicator for steady home sales, and as volatility eases 鈥� should the Iran conflict resolve 鈥� there is anticipation that sales could improve through the summer.

鈥淪tronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five-month high,鈥� said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac鈥檚 chief economist, in a . 鈥淚mportantly, we’re seeing homebuyers look past the short-term rate fluctuations and actively enter the market, signaling renewed confidence in homeownership opportunities.鈥�

Although the market faces plenty of headwinds and affordability continues to keep potential buyers out of the market, the housing market is considered by some to be in a normal phase, with home prices growing at a more manageable pace and supply becoming far steadier, bringing a market long considered a sellers鈥� market back into balance.

One sign of this balance 鈥� one that favors homebuyers 鈥� is the growing incidence of seller concessions. In addition to a greater incidence of outright price cuts, sellers are more likely to assist the buyer with closing costs or may offer financial credits instead of completing requested home repairs.

Final note

Although muted, the housing market is exhibiting signs of strength, with home prices remaining steady, foreclosures proceeding at a very modest pace, and income growth offering hope for potential purchase activity in the future.

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By: Elyce Schweitzer, 星空传媒 星空传媒 Regulatory Compliance Officer

Artificial intelligence has made fraud more convincing and more difficult to spot. As we explored in our earlier piece on deepfake-enabled fraud, today鈥檚 bad actors can impersonate real parties, voices, and documents with a level of sophistication that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago.

In response, lawmakers and regulators are strengthening the legal tools available to prosecutors, civil enforcers, and courts. These developments don鈥檛 rewrite core fraud principles, but they do change how those principles apply to real estate closings 鈥� and they reinforce the value of careful verification.

Understanding this evolving landscape helps explain why it鈥檚 so important to Verify, Then trust 鈥� every file, every party, every time.  

Fraud and Impersonation: Statutory Tools That Matter

States are updating their criminal and civil fraud statutes to make it clearer that impersonation using modern technology is not a technical loophole but a prosecutable offense.

For example, in Texas, (effective September 1, 2025) amended Chapter 32 of the Texas Penal Code by adding Sections 32.56 and 32.57. Section 32.56 makes it an offense, with intent to enter or remain on real property, to knowingly present to another person a false, fraudulent, or fictitious document purporting to be a lease agreement, deed, or other instrument conveying real property or an interest in real property. Section 32.57 makes it a first-degree felony to knowingly list, advertise, sell, rent, or lease residential real property without legal title or authority.

In practice, these sections clarify that impersonation involving falsified property documents constitutes fraud, even when the deception relies on digital or AI-assisted tools. Notably for title agents, when such cases are investigated or litigated, the analysis may extend beyond the fraudulent act itself to examine how the transaction progressed, including what steps were taken to confirm identity and authority before reliance occurred.

The Role of Notarization and Remote Online Notarization

Notarization has become a critical built-in safety mechanism for property transactions. States that authorize Remote Online Notarization (RON) typically require defined identity-verification procedures, which may include multi-factor authentication, recorded sessions, and retained audit logs.

These requirements do more than check a box. They create layers of verification that are observable after the fact. When fraud does occur, prosecutors, judges, and civil litigants may scrutinize whether these verification layers were followed.

In other words, notarization statutes don鈥檛 replace professional diligence 鈥� but they codify expectations for how identity and intent should be confirmed and documented.

Expanding Definitions of Deceptive Communication

Other states have updated their fraud laws to explicitly cover realistic representations made with advanced technologies. , effective April 2, 2025, defines 鈥渄eceptive audio or visual media鈥� as the use of highly realistic representations of speech, conduct, or writing where the subject did not actually engage in that conduct. The statute criminalizes generating, soliciting, disclosing, or using deceptive audio or visual media for the purpose of attempting or furthering the commission of a crime or offense, or with knowledge it will be used for that purpose.

takes a broader approach by recognizing that sophisticated communications techniques, including those enabled by technology, play a central role in modern fraud schemes. The statute consolidates fraud and organized fraud offenses, aligns state law with federal mail and wire fraud precedents, and includes enhanced penalties for certain first-degree felony offenses. It also provides civil remedies related to identity misuse and sets limitation periods and tolling rules that account for defendants who are absent from the state or lack an ascertainable address.

These statutory definitions reinforce something title professionals already know from experience: fraud is not defined by medium but by intent and effect. A voice message, video call, or carefully worded email can be just as fraudulent as a forged signature on paper. What matters is whether it induces action based on false representations.

Federal Reporting and Awareness Efforts

At the federal level, activity has focused on understanding and reporting on the risks associated with AI technologies. For example, legislation passed in connection with the 2021 星空传媒 Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) the Department of Homeland Security to produce annual reports on digital content forgery technology. 鈥� the core technology behind deepfakes.

For those of you who enjoy reading more technical material, the is available for your enjoyment.  A review of the report makes it clear that the technology and its potential for harm to our industry is complicated.

These federal efforts help catalog the risks and raise awareness across industries, but they do not change state criminal or civil liability in property transactions. Instead, they improve the information environment in which professionals and regulators operate.

What This Means for Title Professionals

When closings are reviewed after fraud occurs, the focus will likely shift to whether steps were taken to verify identity, authority, and intent, and whether those steps were reasonable under the circumstances. This reflects how fraud is often evaluated after the fact: technology may enable new methods of deception, but it does not change the underlying wisdom: Verify, Then Trust before acting.

The Bottom Line

Regulatory and statutory changes are not abstract developments. They reflect how lawmakers and enforcers are applying long-established fraud principles to modern threats.

Deepfakes and AI-enabled impersonation present real risks in real estate transactions. The truth is, when fraud is investigated or litigated, attention will likely shift beyond the technology itself to how the transaction unfolded, including whether identity and authority were meaningfully confirmed before reliance occurred.

For agents who incorporate verification as a routine part of their workflow, 鈥淰erify, Then Trust鈥� functions as a practical risk-management framework. It aligns with the way fraud is examined after the fact and supports defensible decision-making when transactions are questioned. Applied consistently, this approach helps protect the transaction, the parties involved, and the professionals responsible for bringing the deal to completion.

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As fraud tactics evolve, so must the way the industry protects consumers and transactions. That鈥檚 why 星空传媒 星空传媒 has launched Verify, Then Trust鈥攁 new initiative designed to raise awareness and reinforce best practices that help stop fraud before it becomes a claim. Agents are urged to Verify, Then Trust on every file, every party, every time.

The Rise of Deepfake Fraud in Real Estate

Deepfake fraud has been making headlines in unexpected ways, and real estate is one of the latest industries to be hit. In the past two years, fraudsters have leveraged AI-powered deepfake technology to pose as property owners, financial executives, and even notary publics. Even experienced agents working with what they think are repeat or loyal customers have suffered devastating losses.

Take, for example, a case from 2023 where a scammer used a deepfake voice to impersonate a real estate attorney in communications with a client. The unsuspecting buyer believed he was speaking with his legitimate attorney and wired a six-figure down payment鈥攕traight into the scammer鈥檚 account.

Another shocking case involved a fraudster using a deepfake video to pose as a property owner looking to sell a luxury home. The scammer managed to fool not only the buyer, but also the title company, leading to the fraudulent sale of a multimillion-dollar estate.

Of course, there was also the fraudulent attempt to force a foreclosure sale of Graceland, Elvis Presley鈥檚 home, which made headlines in 2024. These fraudsters are bold and believe that increasingly large and high-profile targets can yield even bigger payouts.

How to Combat Deepfake Fraud in Real Estate

With deepfake technology becoming more advanced, spotting fraud with the naked eye is harder than ever. But that doesn鈥檛 mean we鈥檙e powerless. Here are some strategies to avoid falling victim:

Double-Verify Identities
Don鈥檛 rely solely on phone calls, video calls, or emails. Always confirm identities through multiple channels鈥攕uch as in-person meetings, official documentation, letters via 鈥渟nail mail,鈥� and voice confirmation through previously established phone numbers. This is even more critical in vacant land transactions or refinances involving free and clear properties.

Use Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA)
When transferring funds or signing critical documents, consider requiring multi-factor authentication (MFA). This adds an extra layer of security beyond visual or voice verification alone. It鈥檚 always important to treat funds with great care鈥攁s if the money were your own鈥攁nd take appropriate steps to protect them. If funds go missing, customers may seek reimbursement from the agent鈥檚 personal account.

Scrutinize Video Calls and Emails
If something feels off鈥攍ike unnatural blinking, delayed audio sync, or robotic speech patterns鈥攂e skeptical. Deepfake videos often have subtle imperfections that can give them away. Ask probing questions a deepfake would not be able to answer accurately. You may even want to establish a special passphrase with customers, provided to them only through a secure portal.

Conduct Due Diligence
If a new client or seller suddenly appears with urgent demands, do your due diligence. Check property records, verify business affiliations, and ensure everything aligns with known facts. As they saying goes: If it appears too good to be true, it probably is. Scammers also like to amp-up the pressure, so do not let a hurried closing or pushy customer cause you to shortcut your verification processes.

Leverage Fraud Detection Tools
Just as AI is being used to create deepfakes, it鈥檚 also being used to detect them. Some AI-driven tools analyze facial movements, voice anomalies, and inconsistencies in digital assets to help identify fraudulent activity. In the real estate space, tools such as CertifID add another layer of confidence to the process. 星空传媒 星空传媒 agents can now use CertifID with discounted pricing to protect deals by verifying identities, managing and ordering payoffs, and securing wire instructions. Verify, then Trust 鈥� every file, every party, every time.

The Bottom Line

Deepfake technology is no longer a futuristic concern鈥攊t鈥檚 here, and it鈥檚 changing the way fraudsters operate. By staying vigilant and implementing multi-layered verification methods, you can ensure that your next property transaction doesn鈥檛 turn into a deepfake disaster. Remember: Verify, Then Trust 鈥� every file, every party, every time.

See 星空传媒 星空传媒鈥檚 recent , which was inspired by a real-life attempt to commit wire fraud using deepfake technology.

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By Adam Mohrbacher

For most homeowners, a deed represents safety, stability, and legacy. Deed fraud turns that certainty upside down. With just a handful of fraudulent filings, criminals can trigger months鈥攕ometimes years鈥攐f financial and legal turmoil for unsuspecting owners. This crime is growing rapidly and poses a serious threat to the real estate and title industries, often leaving lasting damage in its wake. 鈥淒eed fraud is a very real threat,鈥� said Rodney Anderson, EVP and 星空传媒 Agency Manager at 星空传媒 星空传媒. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about someone鈥檚 home, their family鈥檚 legacy, and sometimes their entire life鈥檚 savings. That鈥檚 why the legislation recently passed by the Texas Legislature鈥攕haped with critical input from organizations like the Texas Land Title Association (TLTA)鈥攊s so important.鈥�

Anderson is referring in part to Senate Bill 16 (SB 16), which significantly strengthens prosecutors鈥� ability to pursue deed fraud cases. SB 16 is a cornerstone of a broader legislative package designed to attack deed fraud from multiple angles. Led by State Senator Royce West, the effort positions Texas as a national leader in confronting this urgent and complex issue. 鈥淭ogether, these bills create the strongest state-level protections against deed fraud and title theft anywhere in the country,鈥� Senator West said upon their signing.

An Easy Crime with Devastating Consequences

Legislative action was necessary because deed fraud is not only destructive. It is also often disturbingly easy to commit. One scheme fraudsters use involves falsified documents transferring ownership into their name or an entity they control. They frequently target raw land, vacant properties, and deceased or elderly property owners. Once the fraudulent conveyance is recorded, they 鈥渟ell鈥� the property, disappearing long before the real owner realizes the damage that has been done.

This scheme and others like it succeed by exploiting weaknesses in document notarization and recording processes, as well as challenges within the legal system. While Texas law already required notaries to verify signatures, inconsistent compliance and limited accountability left openings for fraud and abuse. County clerks, meanwhile, are tasked with processing documents efficiently, not investigating their authenticity. In many cases, victims don鈥檛 discover fraud until they try to legitimately sell or refinance their property. And even then, the ordeal is far from over. 鈥淭he cleanup process can be brutal,鈥� Anderson explained. 鈥淧roving a deed is fraudulent usually requires formal legal action, and that process is expensive and time-consuming.鈥�

Historically, prosecutors have been hesitant to pursue these cases criminally, not due to lack of concern, but like most states, Texas lacked statutes tailored specifically to deed fraud. Prosecutors were forced to rely on general theft statutes, attempting to fit complex title crimes into legal arguments that simply weren鈥檛 designed for this kind of crime.

A Comprehensive Legislative Response

The Texas Legislature addressed these gaps with a four-bill package that reforms the system holistically. The measures strengthen prevention, improve detection, empower victims, and equip prosecutors with felony statutes that reflect deed fraud鈥檚 complex reality.

Key provisions include:

• Senate Bill 16

Creates two new criminal offenses specifically addressing real property theft and real property fraud, giving prosecutors statutes that align with how deed fraud schemes operate. 鈥淭hese laws send a clear message that Texas is serious about detecting, prosecuting, and deterring deed fraud,鈥� said Anderson. 鈥淭hey won鈥檛 stop every bad actor, but they make fraud harder to commit, easier to detect, and faster to unwind without overburdening legitimate transactions.鈥�

• Senate Bill 647

Requires county clerks to notify the grantor, grantee, and most recent property owner if a lien appears fraudulent. It also allows clerks to request supporting documentation, seek district attorney assistance, and refuse filing if certain documentation is not provided.

• Senate Bill 693

Targets notary reform by criminalizing notarization without a signer鈥檚 presence and establishing continuing education requirements through the Secretary of State. The goal is to raise professional standards and accountability among notaries.

• Senate Bill 1734

Allows property owners who believe a recorded conveyance is fraudulent to file an owner鈥檚 affidavit. If no controverting affidavit is filed, the owner may petition for district court for an expedited review.

The Power of Collaboration

This legislative success underscores the power of collaboration. It was made possible by lawmakers, regulators, law enforcement, county officials, and industry leaders working toward a shared goal. Senator West led the charge, with key contributions from State Representative Rafael Anchia in the Texas House. Coordination with the County Clerk鈥檚 Association, the Dallas District Attorney鈥檚 office, and John Warren, the Dallas County Clerk, was critical along with input from the Texas Land Title Association. 鈥淭LTA鈥檚 advocacy on this issue demonstrated exactly why all Texas title agents should be a member of the association,鈥� said Anderson, a former legislator, past TLTA president and current committee chair. 鈥淭LTA Vice President of Government Relations and Counsel, Aaron Day, led the advocacy efforts with substantial input from both the Regulatory and Legislative Committees, and with approval from the TLTA Board of Directors.鈥�

A Model for the Nation

The Texas deed fraud package represents a meaningful victory for property owners and the real estate industry alike. It strengthens notary standards, supports county clerks, empowers victims, and gives prosecutors the tools they need to pursue justice. Just as importantly, it offers a roadmap that other states can follow. 鈥淭his legislation should be used as a model throughout the country,鈥� Anderson said. 鈥淟and title associations can partner with lawmakers, prosecutors, and public officials to reduce deed fraud. No law is perfect, but if collaboration leads to legislation that protects families鈥攐r helps owners reclaim property faster鈥攖hen it鈥檚 absolutely worth the effort.鈥�

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Hoping the economic and political volatility of 2025 will soon be in the rearview mirror, economists are forecasting modest 2026 GDP growth of 1.8鈥�2 percent in the U.S. 鈥� numbers that have improved over the past few months, along with a return to moderating inflationary trends.

In his , Fed Chair Jerome Powell was even more optimistic, projecting that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat stronger than the Fed projected in late summer.

In announcing a one-quarter point drop in the Fed Fund interest rate in December, Powell broadly hinted at the FOMC鈥檚 intention to hold to that course in 2026, with no further rate cuts intended in the near term.

鈥淗aving reduced our policy rate by 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points since last September, the fed funds rate is now within a broad range of estimates of its neutral value, and we are well positioned to wait to see how the economy evolves,鈥� he said, adding, 鈥淥ur two goals are a bit in tension. Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high, and we want it to come down and agrees that the labor market has softened and that there is further risk. Where the difference lies is how you weight those risks and, ultimately, where do you think the bigger risk is?鈥�

One of the challenges the FOMC is facing as it moves forward is the lack of access to data during the government shutdown and the possibility that the data that will emerge could be distorted.

鈥淲e’re going to need to be careful in assessing particularly the household survey data,鈥� Powell said. 鈥淭here are very technical reasons about the way data are collected in both inflation and in labor so that the data may be distorted. So, we’re going to get data, but we’re going to have to look at it carefully and with a somewhat skeptical eye by the time of the January meeting.鈥�

Interest rate cut welcome. Is it enough?

Despite a third cut in interest rates over the past six months, forecasters are predicting that without further cuts, mortgage interest rates may stay stubbornly in the 6 percent range in 2026, preventing some buyers from entering the market and restraining sellers who hold 3鈥�4 percent mortgage rates from jumping back into the market.

But even at 6 percent interest rates, the real estate industry is confident that home sales will increase 10鈥�14 percent in 2026, with the 星空传媒 Association of Realtors (NAR) on the optimistic side of that prediction.

At the Dec. 9 , Chief Economist Lawrence Yun鈥檚 predictions were generally upbeat, citing a 14 percent increase in existing home sales, a 5 percent increase in new home sales, a 4 percent increase in home prices, a modest gain of about 400,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate that ticks up to 4.5 percent.

Still, the growth in home sales is not a slam dunk in 2026, as homebuyers face several hurdles. Inflation has made it difficult for first-time homebuyers to save a downpayment while also driving up the cost of new construction.

A long-term issue that continues to fly under the radar is wage disparity itself, which has put the dream of homeownership out of reach for an increasing larger swath of the population since 2000, reducing the potential pool of homebuyers.

One telling stat presented by Yun at the NAR conference was homeownership percentage by age group. While ownership numbers are stable in the 55+ age group, it has fallen in all other age groups 鈥� down 3 percent in the under-35 age group, down 1.5 percent in the 35鈥�44 age group, and down nearly 2 percent in the 45鈥�54 age group. While 2 percent may not seem like a substantial number, it potentially represents 2 million households who are renting rather than owning.

Further evidence of that shifting dynamic was evident in 2023, when there were a reported 130 million households in the U.S., with 85 million owner-occupied and 45 million renter-occupied, representing a new high for the percentage of households renting vs. owning. This is due in large part to three factors: affordability issues, growing investor dominance in the moderately priced home market, and the failure of new home builds to fill the more moderately priced home market gap.

While 2025 is ending on a positive note economically, consumers will be a key driver in the housing market in 2026, and consumer confidence unexpectedly plunged in November, according to Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist, .

鈥淎ll five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak,鈥� he said in The Conference Board鈥檚 Nov. 25 release. 鈥淐onsumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.鈥�

Moderating home prices, increased inventory, a stable job market, and lower inflation all represent the positive environment the real estate industry has been hoping to see in 2026. Although consumer confidence and affordability may prevent 2026 from being a true breakout year, expectations for modest improvements are well supported.

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Congress is entertaining several proposals this year to modify current capital gains tax regulations on the sale of homes, and the real estate industry is championing the proposals, hoping more generous exemptions will encourage long-term owners to put their homes on the market.

But would such a change in the law be enough to move the needle? To explore that question, we鈥檒l consider the current capital gains structure, and the proposals under consideration.

How current capital gains are assessed

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 set the current exemption levels for the sale of a primary residence, which allows a sole owner to exclude up to $250,000 in capital gains and a married couple filing jointly to exclude up to $500,000 from their tax liability.

These gains can be reduced by showing proof of capital upgrades, which include new additions, garages or porches; new roof, siding, driveway or deck; energy efficient upgrades such as insulation, solar or siding; and replacing major systems such as furnace, central air, electrical or plumbing systems.

What was not included in the original legislation was any consideration for inflation. Realtor.com estimates that in the nearly 30 years since the law was passed,

Proposed legislation

There have been three bills introduced in 2025 to address the outdated capital gains tax threshold:

The More Homes on the Market Act of 2025 (H.R.1340)

Introduced in February, the bill would increase the exclusion for capital gains for sole owners from $250,000 to $500,000 and for couples from $500,000 to $1,000,000. The bill also includes a provision that would adjust these numbers over time for inflation. This bipartisan bill may have the best chance of passing, and proponents believe it could have an impact not only on the current availability of homes for sale but also ensure future supply.

Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act of 2025 (S. 798)

Also introduced in February, the bill would index capital gains to inflation, and while the bill is broad in its reach, it does include the sale of property and so would provide some relief to home sellers. This bill is complicated, however, because it impacts such a wide swath of capital gains taxes and is likely to lag in Congress, promising no quick fix for the housing market.

No Tax on Home Sales Act

Introduced in August, this bill would eliminate capital gains entirely on the sale of all primary residences. The downside is that it would cost the federal government billions in lost revenue, which would likely need to be offset by higher taxes elsewhere.

Who benefits?

Assessing the market impact of these proposals also requires asking how widely the effects would be felt among homeowners, and whether the number is large enough to meaningfully shift housing supply. To understand who would benefit from any adjustment to the capital gains tax, it鈥檚 important to look at the sectors of homeowners who have accrued capital gains that exceed the current thresholds.

It is estimated that about 25% of current homeowners 鈥� sole and couple ownership 鈥� have realized a $250,000+ gain since purchasing their home. According to the 星空传媒 Association of Realtors, approximately 38% of homeowners are single owners, so only that percentage of current homeowners would be subject to the $250,000 threshold. Approximately 8% have realized a gain exceeding $500,000.

Given the benefit accrued to married couples, this calculates out to approximately 10% of current homeowners who would actually have a capital gains burden if selling their home under the current regime.

A recent estimate prepared by seemed to concur with these numbers, estimating that only 10.3% of homeowners are above the current exception. The report indicated that those who would benefit would be wealthier, higher-income and older on average, noting that the average net worth of those homeowners is $5.7 million, their average income is $431,000, and the average age is 64.

came to a similar conclusion, noting that the median value of homes that have gained $500,000 is approximately $1.3 million, while the median home value for those homes that have gained $250,000 is $720,000, indicating that those most impacted by the current rates are also among the wealthiest homeowners.

Homeowners on the East and West Coasts, where home values have climbed most rapidly over the past several decades, are also more likely to benefit.

California, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Utah, Idaho and Colorado are the states with the highest share of homes above capital gains thresholds. States in the heartland report negligible numbers exceeding the gains threshold, including Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Louisiana, West Virginia, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Iowa, North Dakota and Mississippi.

How a higher threshold (or no threshold) benefits the real estate market

While there appears to be agreement that the current thresholds are outdated, and likely to penalize long-time elderly homeowners, particularly those who have been widowed, there is less of an understanding of how effective the legislation will be at releasing more homes into the market 鈥� a major concern for the real estate industry.

Although the current inventory of homes for sale is in the 4.6-month range, that inventory could be gobbled up very quickly if the Federal Reserve continues to dial back rates and homebuyers who have sat on the sidelines head back into the market in greater numbers.

From a long-term perspective, raising the threshold seems imperative, as more homeowners will cross that threshold in the coming years if the adjustment is not made, incentivizing a larger number of long-term owners to stay put.

that found:

• By 2030, 56% of homeowners (47 million) are projected to exceed the $250K threshold鈥� and nearly 23% (20 million) could surpass $500K.
• By 2035, nearly 70% (59 million) could surpass $250K and 38% exceed $500K cap.
• Eight states could have more than 40% of owners above the $500K cap by 2030; 20 states by 2035.

However, if the change reaches only 10% of current homeowners, most in higher-income tiers, its effect may be modest. Raising the exclusion might release some upper-tier homes, but it may not resolve the fundamental shortage of affordable housing for lower- and middle-income consumers.

Potential homebuyers may still be on the sidelines in 2026 if the shortage of affordable housing is not addressed in a more meaningful way 鈥� with the industry working alongside national, state, and local governments, as well as community and charitable organizations.

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You鈥檝e probably heard a lot of talk in the news about the federal . Are you aware of the key real estate-related provisions included within it? As of Friday, July 4, 2025, OBBBA was signed into law and if you鈥檙e a title agent, you might be wondering: 鈥淲hat鈥檚 in it for me?鈥� Great question. Let鈥檚 break it down, provision by provision, with an eye toward how this might shake up demand, supply, homebuying behavior, and evenclosing activity.

1) State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT) Raised

What it does:

Raises the cap on the SALT deduction from $10,000 to $40,000 for married couples (and $20,000 for singles) through 2029. This change boosts federal tax deductibility of property taxes and state/local income taxes鈥攅specially meaningful for homeowners in high-tax states鈥攑otentially increasing affordability and stimulating demand.

Why it matters for real estate:

This is significant for buyers in places like New York, California, New Jersey, and other high-tax states. For years, the $10,000 cap felt like a hurdle for owning property in pricier ZIP codes. Now, with a juicier deduction, some buyers may re-enter the market, or decide not to relocate to lower-tax states.

Bottom line for title agents:

This may contribute to increased purchase activity in affluent suburban areas and high-SALT cities. Tax relief may create additional incentive to buy. Keep an eye on move-up buyers who had previously been sitting on the sidelines.

2) Bonus Depreciation Is Back (and Permanent)

What it does:

Restores 100% bonus depreciation (first-year write-off) for qualifying property, including many real estate investments retroactive to Jan. 19, 2025. Bonus depreciation allows a business or investor to deduct 100% of the cost of qualifying assets in the first year they鈥檙e placed in service, instead of spreading that deduction out over many years.

Normally, with real estate or business assets, you鈥檇 depreciate things slowly, for example, over 27.5 years for residential rental property or 39 years for commercial property. Bonus depreciation speeds that up dramatically for some parts of a property.

For a detailed example of how bonus depreciation works in a real estate deal, see .

Why it matters for real estate:

This is favorable for landlords and real estate investors. Being able to write off the full cost of improvements or qualifying property in year one can enhance cash flow and ROI. That could spur new investment in rental housing, mixed-use projects, and rehabs.

Bottom line for title agents:

You could see more investor activity, particularly in fix-and-flip, build-to-rent, and multifamily deals. This may help offset housing shortages and drive inventory growth, especially in underbuilt markets.

3) Qualified Business Income (QBI) Deduction (Section 199A) Made Permanent

What it does:

Permanently extends the 20% federal tax deduction for QBI for pass-through entities (e.g., S-corporations, LLCs, partnerships, and sole proprietorships), including many rental real estate owners. QBI was originally introduced under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Many real estate investors benefit because rental property income can qualify as QBI if:

• The rental activity is considered a 鈥渢rade or business鈥� under IRS rules
• The taxpayer materially participates (or uses a qualified management structure)
• There is continuity, regularity, and a profit motive

For further explanation, see , and .

Why it matters for real estate:

The QBI deduction is a favorite tool in the investor toolkit. Keeping it around makes real estate a more attractive long-term play. This could bring in new landlords and encourage expansion by existing ones, helping to stabilize or grow rental housing supply.

Bottom line for title agents:

Watch for more LLCs and S-corps forming to manage properties. Refinance volume could also rise as investors restructure portfolios to take advantage of long-term tax perks.

4) Rural Loan Interest Tax Exemption

What it does:

Makes 25% of interest income from rural or agricultural real estate loans tax-exempt for qualifying lenders.

Why it matters for real estate:

This is intended to make lending in rural America more attractive. If banks and credit unions see better margins, they may be more likely to fund land purchases, agricultural developments, and rural home construction.

Bottom line for title agents:

This may support a gradual increase in rural closings, especially for farm properties, land deals, and new construction loans. It鈥檚 a notable development for regions where affordable housing is in short supply but land is abundant.

5) Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Ownership Limit Adjusted (Back to 25%)

What it does:

Resets the cap on how much of a REIT鈥檚 assets can be held by a Taxable REIT Subsidiary (TRS) from 20% back up to 25%.

Why it matters for real estate:           
REITs are like mutual funds for real estate:

• You buy a share in the REIT
• The REIT owns/operates properties
• You get a piece of the income through dividends

A Taxable REIT Subsidiary (TRS) is a separate company that a REIT owns (or partly owns) to do things the REIT itself isn鈥檛 allowed to do, and it pays taxes like a regular company. To give you an idea of how the REIT and the TRS work together, while the REIT is limited to passive income activities and may, for example, own a hotel chain and collect the rent or lease income, it cannot actually operate any of its hotels. That鈥檚 where the TRS comes in. It can run those services (e.g. provides room service, spa treatments, cleaning, event hosting, etc.), pay corporate taxes on its income, and then send the after-tax profits to the REIT.

This change offers REITs more flexibility to expand into non-traditional real estate services鈥攖hink data centers, logistics, and even solar fields鈥攚ithout tax penalty. It may also encourage mergers, acquisitions, and specialty REIT creation.

Bottom line for title agents: 
While this is more of a Wall Street play, downstream effects could include more commercial real estate deals, more due diligence, and higher demand for your title expertise in complex REIT-funded developments.

Final Thoughts: Potential Impacts on the Housing Market

While not everything in the 鈥淏ig Beautiful Bill鈥� was designed specifically for real estate, the collective impact for our industry could include:

• Tax relief that may increase buying power
• Investment incentives that may support additional inventory
• Rural lending provisions that can broaden housing access
• REIT flexibility that can stimulate commercial activity

For title pros, that may translate into more closings, a wider variety of deal types, and renewed activity in both residential and commercial sectors. So, if your late-summer closings start to heat up like your BBQ grill, you may know why!

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On the strength of a growing economy and softening inflation in 2024, real estate sales looked promising coming into 2025. But burgeoning economic instability has dialed back expectations for both economists and consumers.

In May, the World Economic Forum released the , noting the volatility fueled by tariff wars is likely to have long-ranging effects.

鈥淭he chief economists were largely aligned in their assessment that higher tariffs and persistent trade tensions would fuel inflation and suppress trade volumes,鈥� the organization reported.

The effect, according to the , is that advanced economies 鈥� specifically the U.S. and European countries 鈥� are likely to experience only modest growth at 1.5% in 2025 with little improvement expected in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies are anticipated to lead the world with 4.1% growth, with overall global growth to remain in the 3% range for the near future.

Given the uncertainty, the U.S. real estate market is facing several headwinds as the 2025 market winds down and we head into 2026.

Consumer confidence

Economic instability has taken a toll on consumer confidence, with the numbers plummeting in April, according to The Conference Board. Although there was some improvement in July, confidence remains low in significant areas.

鈥淭he Expectations Index 鈥� based on consumers鈥� short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions 鈥� rose 4.5 points to 74.4,鈥� the organization reported in its . 鈥淏ut expectations remained below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead for the sixth consecutive month.鈥�

The Conference Board also noted that consumer appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest level since March 2021, a sentiment which tracks employment conditions on the ground.

Job growth has diminished dramatically over the past several months, with new jobs averaging only 97,000 per month so far this year, half that of 2024, which posted an average of more than 180,000 jobs per month.

Consumer jitters are also likely to impact GDP, , which report that personal consumption expenditures are slowing sharply.

鈥淧ersonal consumption expenditures in the second quarter grew by only 0.9%, the slowest pace since the pandemic,鈥� the news agency noted. 鈥淎nd in real terms, consumer spending has completely flat-lined in the first half of the year.鈥�

Affordability

The 星空传媒 Association of Realtors that June housing market activity was slow largely due to affordability issues, with the median existing-home price reaching an all-time high and marking the 24^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

NAR highlighted in the brief report that local markets are attempting to increase construction of affordable housing by issuing more building permits, but it is unlikely to address the long-term systemic issue of housing affordability.

Recent studies have pointed to a larger issue; that lower- and middle-income households are unable to afford even the most modest construction due to their reliance on low wage jobs. The value of that moderate income has been eroded further through inflation, as the cost of goods, services and housing continue to escalate faster than wage growth.

While local housing assistance programs and affordable housing construction can help to some extent, until income disparity is addressed in a broader societal context, homeownership may remain out of reach for a growing percentage of the U.S. population.

Interest rates

In the , economists Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan forecasted interest rates to end the year at 6.7%, moderating only slightly in 2026 to 6.4%.

鈥淚f the economy does enter recession, mortgage rates are likely to drop faster than in our baseline forecast, which would push up refinance volume, but would lead to a sharper increase in the unemployment rate, which would slow the purchase market,鈥� they noted. 鈥淎lternatively, if the tariffs result in stickier inflation rather than just being the result of a one-time price increase, the rate path could go higher, leading to fewer refinances.鈥�

Given the uncertainty ahead, they adjusted their 2025 origination forecast as follows:

• Total origination volume is expected to increase to $2.02 trillion
• Purchase originations will reach $1.4 trillion compared to $1.3 trillion in 2024
• Refinance originations are expected to increase to $664 billion from $491 billion

As inventory continues to improve, Fratantoni and Kan said home price appreciation is likely to slow to one percent by the end of 2025 with home prices remaining flat in 2026 and 2027 as demand slows.

Inflation

Inflation may be the key to what happens next for the real estate market.

The CPI readings for June showed a slight pick-up in inflation, with inflation increasing to 2.7 percent compared to the same month a year ago, the highest growth rate in five months, but below the anticipated 3%+ range.

The slower-than-expected pace of inflation provided some hope that while the tariffs may have a temporary impact on inflation, eventual moderation may open the door for the Federal Reserve to provide some much-needed interest rate relief for the market by 2026.

Given the uncertainty ahead, examining how all of these factors intersect with and apply to the local economy will help real estate agents, loan officers and title companies improve their ability to forecast and prepare for their own local market opportunities.

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Here鈥檚 a riddle for the title insurance and real estate industries: what does Dolly Parton鈥檚 song, 鈥淗ere You Come Again鈥� have to do with FinCEN, its Geographic Targeting Orders (GTOs), and its Final Real Estate Report Rule (Final Rule)?  Answer: the last verse of the song repeats the lyrics, 鈥淗ere you come again . . . And here I go鈥� several times, analogous to FinCEN鈥檚 multiple, back-to-back, ever-expanding GTO鈥檚 issued since 2016, culminating in its permanent Final Rule issued on August 28, 2024, and effective on December 1, 2025, and our efforts to adapt and comply with all of its changes and requirements. 

We first published a in November of 2024 discussing FinCEN鈥檚 Final Rule, its anticipated effective date of December 1, 2025, and the  things you should be thinking about to get an early start on operationalizing compliance with the numerous requirements.  Well, a lot has happened since then鈥攍et’s bring you up to speed.

What has the industry been up to?

First of all, industry stakeholders have been diligently working to try and reduce the impact of the Final Rule on your title insurance business. Some players have even started pushing back hard against the Final Rule.

• On April 14, 2025, East Texas Title  filed suit in the U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Texas, to get an injunction against the permanent FinCen Real Estate Rule from going into effect on December 1, 2025. Some of the legal arguments:
  • Violation of the Constitution鈥檚 separation of powers 鈥� title agents should not be 鈥渇orced to perform government surveillance on their clients by reporting private information from legitimate transactions鈥�
  • Constitution only grants Congress the power to regulate commerce between states and that the federal government has no standing to require businesses to collect information on real estate cash transactions that take place entirely within Texas
  • Fourth Amendment protects against 鈥渦nreasonable searches and seizures鈥� of 鈥減ersons, houses, papers, and effects,鈥� including business record – no right to require private business to violate the privacy of Americans.
    
• On May 20, 2025, a national underwriter  filed suit against Department of the Treasury and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with FinCEN and its director, Andrea Gacki, in the U.S. District Court, Middle District of Florida, Jacksonville Division.  Some of the legal arguments set out in their complaint include:
  • The rule exceeds FinCEN鈥檚 statutory authority
  • The rule is arbitrary and capricious
  • The rule violates the Fourth Amendment prohibition against warrantless searches
  • The rule violates the First Amendment鈥檚 prohibition on compelled speech
  • The rule exceeds any authority Congress could have delegated under the Commerce Clause or its other Article I powers
    
• On May 15, 2025, ALTA made a formal appeal to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), asking for the 鈥淎nti-Money Laundering Regulations for Residential Real Estates鈥� Final Rule to be rescinded 鈥渋f changes are not made to lessen the overly burdensome requirements on small title companies.鈥� (See )
  

Second of all, ALTA took the lead and created a working group to develop information collection forms to capture the information required for FinCEN reporting under the Final Rule.  After all, FinCEN鈥檚 initial had 111 distinct fields so there will be a good bit of information to be collected! 

Third of all, ALTA has been working on creating helpful industry training webinars.  The first of these webinars was presented in March 2025 –  Learn How Proposed Real Estate Anti Money Laundering Rule Impacts You 鈥� and is available to watch as a free recording on Youtube at .  The second of these webinars was a comprehensive 2-day FinCEN Bootcamp training session held on June 2 and 3, 2025; while the Bootcamp was not a free event, we will be sharing valuable information from it in our future blogs and in agent training currently under development.  For now, you should know that the big takeaway from the Bootcamp is that it is NOT too early to begin operational preparations for the Final Rule.  It was pointed out that orders for cash transactions received in October and November could very well close in December and therefor be subject to the requirements of the Final Rule, so processes need to be in place to recognize and capture those early orders and ensure your agency鈥檚 compliance.  In fact, settlement agents are encouraged to register for the FinCEN filing portal in advance of the Final Rule鈥檚 effective date by going to and setting up a Supervisory User Account.  You can even prepare a practice report to understand the actual process and even provide your team with training. Just do not hit SUBMIT!

Lastly, on April 17, 2025, ALTA published based upon questions from their customers.  The questions involve numerous scenarios, and the answers do a good job of interpreting and applying the provisions of the Final Rule to the hypotheticals. 

What has FinCEN been up to since it鈥檚 publication of the ? 

On November 12, 2024, it released a to implement the Final Rule.  As with the posting of the Final Rule, the posting of the draft report form also has a preamble discussion, but if you want to skip over it and hop directly to the draft report section in the Appendix 鈥� Real Estate Report Summary of Data Fields, then click here .  

On June 5, 2025, FinCEN announced that the U.S. Department of the Treasury, on behalf of FinCEN, will submit the to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review and clearance in accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (PRA); the public comment period on the information collection request is open until July 7, 2025.  By law, an agency cannot collect information without displaying a valid OMB number, so this is another required step as FinCEN moves forward with its plans for a final report form to implement its Final Rule.  To skip the preamble and go directly to the Appendix-Real Estate Report Summary of Data Fields, click here .  

What has 星空传媒 星空传媒 been up to?

Members of 星空传媒 星空传媒鈥檚 legal team have participated in developing the ALTA information collection forms and trainings discussed above.  We recognize that all stakeholders in this process will need education to understand the benefits of the Final Rule as well as its impact on residential real estate transactions after December 1, 2025. Stay tuned for practical 星空传媒 星空传媒 agent training webinars starting later this summer. We will also offer programs for your real estate professional partners as their support of your information collection efforts will be critical to a smooth closing under the Final Rule. We are already working to train our internal team members so you will have a team of experts at your disposal. Then we will help 鈥渢rain the trainers鈥� so you are equipped to respond and educate your business referring partners as well.  One thing is clear, moving forward the more players in your real estate transaction who are up to date with the benefits of the Final Rule and the protections it offers, the more rapidly acceptance and adaptation will follow. 星空传媒 星空传媒 will be your expert now and as the Final Rule implementation becomes part of your standard operation procedures.  

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In my last blog article, I discussed how deepfake fraud is a growing threat in the real estate industry and what you can do to combat it in your workplace. This time, I thought it would be helpful to take a deeper dive into some of the latest AI tools on the market that may be able to assist in these efforts. Of course, careful consideration is warranted before implementing any new solution, and it鈥檚 important to consult with your IT and security team to ensure it aligns with your business needs and data security standards. With that said, let鈥檚 dig in!

What is deepfake fraud?

Deepfake fraud has exploded in recent years, with some reporting showing an increase of over 2,000%. Scammers are using AI-generated videos and voices to impersonate real people convincingly. To combat this technology, experts have developed cutting-edge tools and techniques to recognize and stop deepfakes.

What are people doing about it?

Here are some of the latest detection methods that your agency might consider to keep deepfake fraudsters at bay. Here鈥檚 how they work.

• AI-powered detection tools听are designed to analyze videos and images in real time to detect whether they have been manipulated. Just a couple promising tools include:
  
  • HONOR鈥檚 AI Deepfake Detection 鈥撎�Launching April 2025
    HONOR鈥檚 deepfake solution can be thought of as a built-in lie detector for images and videos. The technology scans media in real time and alerts users if something seems fake. This could help businesses and individuals avoid being misled by AI-generated content.[i]
    
  • Reality Defender听鈥撎�Real-time Deepfake Detection for Video Calls
    In a world of constant video meetings, it has unfortunately become possible for someone to get on a call with you and pretend to be your boss or a family member by using deepfake technology. Reality Defender combats this type of fraud by scanning facial movements, voice patterns and subtle glitches in real time. If anything is flagged, the technology alerts the user so they don鈥檛 become victims of scams.[ii]
    
• Lightweight AI models听are another tool people are deploying to deal with the rise of deepfakes and other fraudulent activity. These AI detection tools offer unique advantages to users. For one thing, they require far less computing power than other models, but they are still capable of effectively detecting deepfakes. Let鈥檚 look at a specific example:
  
  • Tiny-LaDeDa 鈥撎�A mini AI model with 96% accuracy
    Unlike traditional AI models that suck up an inordinate amount of power, Tiny-LaDeDa can sniff out deepfakes even while running on smaller devices. Despite being lightweight, it still claims to detect 96% of deepfake videos out there by analyzing tiny details in the way faces and voices are generated.[iii]

Comprehensive benchmarking frameworks

Given that deepfake technology is always evolving, cybersecurity researchers are not resting on their laurels. The industry has been developing standardized testing platforms to improve detection tools and ensure that security solutions can keep up with even the most creative of fraudsters. Let鈥檚 take a peek at some of the most notable:

• DF40 鈥撎�A giant deepfake training library
  The DF40 library can be thought of like a gym for deepfake detectors. It contains thousands of deepfake samples created using 40 different AI techniques. Researchers can train and test tools against a wide variety of fake content, which enables them to get far better at spotting new ones as they come online.[iv]听
  
• DeepfakeBench 鈥撎�A fair testing ground
  As with many cybersecurity tools, not all deepfake detectors are created equal. Additionally, some detectors are good at spotting one type of fraud but perform poorly when dealing with another. DeepfakeBench seeks to remedy this by ensuring that every detection tool is tested under the same conditions. It is an important solution for those who want to compare different products and assess which ones are the most effective.[v]

Smarter deepfake detection techniques

Sometimes, deepfake detectors can cause more problems than they solve. For example, certain tools may focus too much on 鈥渇ake-looking鈥� elements instead of checking if a person鈥檚 identity is real by cross-referencing IDs against verified data or analyzing biometric consistency. Luckily, there are many researchers currently working hard to fix this problem:

• Rebalanced Deepfake Detection Protocol (RDDP)
  RDDP improves deepfake detection by making sure tools don鈥檛 just look for obvious digital artifacts like weird lighting or blurry patches. This prevents hackers from bypassing detection by using better-quality deepfakes.[vi]

Government and military efforts

Governments are also stepping into the fight against deepfake fraud, especially because deepfakes can pose a considerable risk to national security and election integrity.

• Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
  DARPA is an agency within Defense Department that focuses on investigating emerging technologies. As part of that effort, it is investing in AI tools that go beyond simple detection and combat deepfakes on a forensic level. The agency sees this work as a critical piece of the puzzle in dealing with everything from misinformation and identity fraud to protecting against AI-generated impersonations.[vii]听
  

Tools for real estate transactions

While deepfake technology is advancing, so too are the tools designed to prevent all types of fraud in real estate transactions.

• SecureMyTransaction庐 from 星空传媒 星空传媒
  SecureMyTransaction (SMT) leverages AI-driven facial recognition to verify identities by comparing ID photos with selfie images, helping ensure that parties involved in a transaction are legitimate. In addition, SMT helps verify bank accounts and business entities to add multiple layers of security. By integrating these advanced fraud prevention tools into the title and escrow workflow, SMT provides an important safeguard against deepfakes and other fraud tactics. Learn more at.

Final thoughts

Scammers are increasingly using AI-powered deepfakes to target real estate transaction stakeholders鈥攚hich makes them a major threat to our industry. But thankfully, new detection technologies are pushing back on these ambitious criminals. For title agencies, it is imperative to understand how these solutions work and how they may enhance your cybersecurity posture. The threat landscape is always evolving, but by staying apprised of the most cutting-edge solutions out there, you can fight fraud and keep your agency moving forward.

[i] 

[ii] 

[iii] 

[iv] 

[v] 

[vi] 

[vii] 

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